15 Eki The World Energy Crisis and Reflections on Turkey

After a long time, I’m sharing my  new article , The World Energy Crisis and Reflections on Turkey..

As known, the world has entered a period of great depression with the year of  2019. First the China-US trade war, then the pandemic, completely disrupted the supply chain and revealed a new disorderly order. The supply of many commodity groups, from copper to aluminum, from petroleum to coal, from LNG to wheat, from corn to cotton, has become difficult all over the world and their prices have increased significantly.

And during such a period, the Russia-Ukraine war ignited the crisis in Europe.

Another situation is that Europe entered the last winter period with the lowest gas stock amount of the last 5 years in underground natural gas storages and by the spring of 2022, the stock levels dropped to a critical level.

Although Europe tries to produce small solutions in this period, the result seems in vain.

In order to reduce electricity and natural gas consumption;

• Reducing the heating degrees of residences and workplaces
• Turning off city lights
• Shortening shower times
• They occupy the agenda with “solution suggestions” such as reducing cooking times.

I think that the work that will make the biggest contribution to this process will be Renewable Energy solutions.

It is certain that renewable energy, electricity storage and hydrogen technologies and investments in these areas will make a significant contribution to the process in the long run.

• Wind turbine
• Solar panel
• Electricial Vehicles
• Green Hydrogen Solutions

Energy Crisis, Reflections on Turkey

With its LNG terminals and Floating LNG Storage and Gasification Unit (FSRU facilities), Turkey can play an important role in meeting the supply security and gas needs of neighboring countries as well as its own needs.

Turkey’s LNG input capacity, which has grown with the investments made in recent years, has reached the level of 133 million cubic meters/day. Saros FSRU, Marmara Ereğlisi LNG terminal, Egegaz LNG terminal in İzmir and Impact FSRU facilities in İzmir, which are planned to be completed this autumn, can make a significant contribution to the alternative resource supply of Bulgaria, Romania and other Balkan countries.

Can Turkey support Europe in renewable energy?

I can mention that there are problems in the supply of wind turbines and solar panels. In recent years, the production of solar panels, wind turbines and equipment has increased considerably in Turkey. Turkey has become the 5th largest wind equipment manufacturer in Europe today. In 2021, it exported 1.5 billion Euros of wind turbines and equipment to nearly 50 countries.

With its qualified human resources and strong production infrastructure, competitive prices, flexible time and low costs in transportation, strong and well-educated researcher resources and scientific infrastructure, Turkey is ready to make new investments in the solution of Europe’s energy crisis, energy supply security .Energy supply security can play an important role in the energy transformation. It could further enhance this role with the potential to become an important green hydrogen generator.

Does Turkey have energy security?

Compared to Europe, Turkey is not expected to experience any major problems in winter in terms of supply security, with its high LNG input capacities, ongoing gas flow from Russia, and the occupancy rate in underground natural gas storages, which is expected to reach 100 percent by the end of October , 2022.

The rapidly increasing share of wind and sun in Turkey’s electricity generation in recent years is very important in terms of both reducing dependence on imported energy sources, reducing carbon emissions and contributing to security of supply. It is of vital importance that Turkey continue to invest in renewable energy without slowing down and increase its momentum in the upcoming period.

When will the new natural gas sources come into play?

The first gas production in the Sakarya gas field, which was discovered in the Black Sea in 2020, is planned to start in the first quarter of 2023.

It is a great chance that the field, which is planned to produce 10 million cubic meters of natural gas per day in the first phase, will be commissioned in the middle of the energy crisis. By the end of 2026, it is planned to increase the daily gas production at the plateau level to 40 million cubic meters and the annual total production amount to 14-15 billion cubic meters. This corresponds to a quarter of the annual need of Turkey, which consumes an average of 60 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year.

By 2028, it is estimated that the total gas production in the Black Sea may rise to 19-20 billion cubic meters per year.

Will it be difficult in Turkey?

Presently ;  Turkey is dependent on imported resources at a rate of 99 percent for natural gas, 92 percent for oil, and nearly 72 percent for primary energy consumption. Therefore, while Europe is waiting for the hardest winter in energy, Turkey, like all energy importing countries, faces significant difficulties.

Increasing natural gas, LNG, oil and coal prices all over the world increase Turkey’s energy import costs to a record level. This price increase for high subsidies is also reflected on consumers.

What should Turkey do?

Turkey’s energy import bill is expected to exceed $100 billion in 2022. It is necessary to focus on energy efficiency and especially energy saving in order to alleviate the subsidy burden by using public resources more efficiently, to limit the increase in the energy import bill, to use the country’s resources more efficiently and most importantly to reduce the high energy costs of consumers.

Considering the approaching winter season and the deepening energy crisis in Turkey, where energy efficiency is quite low, unlike developed European countries, effective steps towards efficient use of energy are taken from the comfort temperature in the houses to the insulation of the buildings, from electric motors in the industry to the exterior heating of cafes and restaurants, from lighting and electronic appliances in the houses to street lighting that we need.

As Europe prepares for the most difficult winter in energy, we urgently need to bring energy efficiency to the top of the society’s agenda so that Turkey and consumers can get out of this process at the lowest cost.

Thanks for your interest to our articles,

Best Wishes,

Mahmut Sami SAKA

15.10.2022